The bottom line in poker is expected value, whichever move gets you the most of it is the best one. Obviously it isn't that simple though. You don't know your opponents cards, therefore it is impossible to make the most +EV decision every time; pretty simple. However, a situation i've been thinking about recently is whether what initially looks like a +EV call or play is actually +EV because of the need to deal with later streets-- the turn and/or river. I will give an example, i am not going to get into the exact math of hand ranges because it really isn't relevant. One must have a feel for their opponent and his/her ranges, cause it is impossible to do the math every time.
Say an aggressive opponent raises 4x in the cut off in a 6max game and you call on the button with 99, everyone else folds and its HU.
The flop comes 2d6s qh
This flop isn't great, but against an aggressive opponent it is often correct to assume that you hand is good here. So he c-bets and we simply call because we know we are ahead of his range (it is usually inccorect to raise as that eliminates all hands you beat). So in a vaccum this call is good and correct. However, one must also consider what your opponent will do on later streets. Will he fire the second barrel with nothing ALOT? will he even fire the third barrel for all his chips? These are all important questions to ask your self before calling. An uncountable number of times i have called in very simmilar situations like this only to fold to the 100% second barrel frequency of a hyper aggressive player, thus spewing alot of money on the flop unneccesarily. Also, when working in very marginal situations like this, it is important to figure out if by calling the flop, you are currently making a correct call, but will be forced to make bigger (as the pot is obv much larger) mistakes on later streets thus making the overall hand -EV.
This is relatively advanced theory, and what i have said may not all be entirely true, but its certainly interesting to think about.
I will try to come up with some more concrete examples of this some other time, and if i'm feeling really adventurous i could do the hand ranges math.
Cheers,
bmxicle
ps. tell me if that made sense or not
Say an aggressive opponent raises 4x in the cut off in a 6max game and you call on the button with 99, everyone else folds and its HU.
The flop comes 2d6s qh
This flop isn't great, but against an aggressive opponent it is often correct to assume that you hand is good here. So he c-bets and we simply call because we know we are ahead of his range (it is usually inccorect to raise as that eliminates all hands you beat). So in a vaccum this call is good and correct. However, one must also consider what your opponent will do on later streets. Will he fire the second barrel with nothing ALOT? will he even fire the third barrel for all his chips? These are all important questions to ask your self before calling. An uncountable number of times i have called in very simmilar situations like this only to fold to the 100% second barrel frequency of a hyper aggressive player, thus spewing alot of money on the flop unneccesarily. Also, when working in very marginal situations like this, it is important to figure out if by calling the flop, you are currently making a correct call, but will be forced to make bigger (as the pot is obv much larger) mistakes on later streets thus making the overall hand -EV.
This is relatively advanced theory, and what i have said may not all be entirely true, but its certainly interesting to think about.
I will try to come up with some more concrete examples of this some other time, and if i'm feeling really adventurous i could do the hand ranges math.
Cheers,
bmxicle
ps. tell me if that made sense or not
on June 15, 2007, 8:33 am
Reply to this comment